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Grunspan, C., & Perez-Marco, R. (2018). Double spend races. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance, 21(8), 1850053. 
Added by: Rucknium (2023-08-23 16:51)   Last edited by: Rucknium (2023-08-23 16:52)
Resource type: Journal Article
BibTeX citation key: Grunspan2018
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Categories: Not Monero-focused
Creators: Grunspan, Perez-Marco
Collection: Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance
Views: 137/1978
Attachments   462b843121af6f4cf015f776f66a98a9.pdf [24/424] URLs   https://www.worlds ... /S021902491850053X
We correct the double spend race analysis given in Nakamoto's foundational Bitcoin article and find the exact closed-form formula for the probability of success of a double spend attack using the regularized incomplete beta function. We give the first proof of its exponential decay on the number of confirmations, often cited in the literature, and find an asymptotic formula. Larger number of confirmations are required compared to those given by Nakamoto. We also compute this probability conditional to the knowledge of the time of the confirmations. This provides a finer risk analysis than the classical one.
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